Hacker15e,

I don’t doubt that in ‘99 a report would show exactly that. I had some new hire UAL pilots in my squadron passing around the new contract (‘99 or ‘00?); I couldn’t believe it and said, “it’s 50/50 you give much of that. A ton of guys also went to USAirways then, too. It’s not that the predictions are disingenuous or wrong; it’s they don’t account for the inherent volatility in aviation. Ten years of furlough can change the lifetime earnings greatly.

As an aside, a tanker guy showed me a spreadsheet showing leaving at 17 years an becoming an ART was better than staying to 20.

GF