Originally Posted by
Andy
MasterOfPuppets was spot on.
Tell me more about regional feed. RJ CASM is the highest in aviation; A319s can be operated for close to the same cost as a 50 seater and less than the cost of two 50 seaters that it could replace. Half the frequency but passengers would much prefer to ride on a mainline aircraft than ANY RJ.
The majors will survive just fine when the day comes (and it will) when all RJ feed no longer exists.
I've commuted a LOT. Riding on an RJ is pure misery, worse than a middle seat even if wedged between the 350lb POS and the new mother with the screaming poop factory.
As far as shorting UAL stock, go for it. For me, it's in no man's land. I wouldn't touch it right now on the long or short side. If it gets to the low 60s, I'd buy. In today's markets, I wouldn't go short anything. Even if there were a stock named, 'career RJ pilot'.
LCCs are going to kill mainline! It's math. Pax have no desire to pay a few dollars extra for mainline flights that offer nothing special in terms of value. LCCs will have an easy time recruiting new pilots in the future because they are growing fast and offer quick upgrades. Look at European LCCs, all they hire is 20 year olds flying 737s and paying them as much as RJ pilots make in the US. Norwegian Air is expanding like crazy in the US. Captains make 10,000 a month with only 10 days off/mo. FOs make 5500/mo. It's a cool airplane to fly so they are having no issues staffing the bases with RJ pilots that couldn't get hired at mainline. There is a reason United stock went down 12% today. You can thank the LCCs!