Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
I don't know what those numbers are but I have a strong feeling that United, with this negotiated contract due in 2019, will become the first legacy to fly a 76 seat aircraft (or whatever they decide to configure the current 76 seat jets to). It will be a trial run that will either succeed or fail. If it succeeds CPAs will not be renewed and the aircraft will be brought in house as the current CPAs expire. If it fails the old scope section will come back into play.
Regionals are bloated and expensive on every level and the experiment that started in the mid 90's is coming to an end.
I agree. Regionals have a major pilot shortage today with no end in sight. Far less potiential new civilian pilots are entering the career path due to the poor regional wages and career stagnation in transitioning from regionals to the legacies as a whole post 9/11. Today there is no pilot shortage at the legacies, but in 5 to 10 years there will most likely be a true pilot shortage at the legacies. The military has a pilot shortage and that too will get worse during the next decade.
China is growing with projections of over 200,000 new pilot positions to be created in the next 20 to 25 years. A year or two ago I used to get sent brochures from recruiters to fly a 737 in China for 300K per year as a CA. Now I’m getting one from an airline offering just shy of 500K per year for CA’s and just under 300K per year for FO’s. This is only going to go up over time. The ME3 pay low today and if they want to retain pilots their going to have to significantly raise their pilot pay.
Barring a 9/11 type of chatistriohic event we are looking at a true global pilot shortage in the not to distant future.
How can legacies make sure the 70/76 seat RJ’s are appropriately staffed and find a way to increase significantly new young pilots entering the career path? By bringing over time the vast majority of 70/76 flying to mainline and having that be the entry level position for a new hire legacy pilot job. If poriential new pilots saw a real career path in a reasonable timeline to a legacy, far more would choose a pilot as a career and reverse the huge negative trend of young people choosing not to be a pilot as a career.
50 seaters are going away. No ones making new ones, they are too expensive to operate. Passengers dislike them. If fuel hadn’t dropped so much over the past five years many would have been parked today. As fuel creeps up you’ll start to hear more about them going away again. The only reason SK has increased them at UAL is due to the Scope choke and that’s the only way he can add connectivity from the smaller markets into our hubs at present. He wants to grow our hubs, 50 seaters are only a very short term solution.
Yes 70/76 seaters provide a far better customer experience vs. the 50 seaters. I believe they are here to stay at least medium term. Kirby wants more, the only way he’s going to get them is by starting to bring them to mainline (at least the pilot jobs) at an appropriate pay rate.