I don't want to discourage anyone from coming here or not, it's their own prerogative. If one wants to entertain numbers to see how it looks?

We have combined ~2,900 pilots and hiring for a total of about ~3,200-3,300 by year end 2018. 10 year retirement (2018-2027) total for both sides combined = 622.

That represents barely 20% of the pilot list over the next 10 years. If you start as a newhire right now as 3,000 or junior, you will be a FO for a loooong time. 622 retirements in 10 yrs means you'll be ~2,380 out of 4,000 to maybe 4,500 pilots. Most of it depends on the fleet plan and just how big we get. Growth to AAG includes both Horizon and Alaska. It's highly doubtful that Alaska will double its mainline fleet in the next 10 yrs. So if you start at 3,000 and assuming upgrade goes to about 50-55% on the list, just how big does the pilot group have to be for a 3,000 today to see a CA slot? 5,000ish?

Next 10 year (2018-2027) retirements at AA: 8,200 (out of ~15,600) which represents 53% of the entire pilot list.
Next 10 year (2018-2027) retirements at DL: 6,400 out of 14,500 which represents 44% of the entire list.