Originally Posted by
CaptCoolHand
5.14% Slightly over the 3-5% I stated earlier. Problem is it changes with the wind. We defer planes today, then pick up extras down the line. If you recall a few year back when we first deferred 2018 was only supposed to have about 4 deliveries, maybe 6 I can't remember now. were getting 10 now. A few years ago we found 4 extras we weren't supposed to get. some years were 20 others were 5, why not smooth it out.
SEC-Show
2018 delivery schedule is on page three of the investor update. it's about 1/3 the way down the file.
I know what stagnation is... it was 2008-2009, I spent that time in BOS as 2002/2007 pilots. It was super cool in 2010 I think we hired like 30.
Those times were great. I was especially excited to know how lucky I was to be here, and how I should have been furloughed so some senior guy could continue making his 140hrs/month. So yea, it's subjective.
This is the problem with the "exodus" argument right now. It just isn't.
will it? I just don't know.
So, our big Airbus order around the 2011 time frame originally had us ramping up to 15 deliveries per year, I believe they were to reach 15 deliveries somewhere between 2014-2016 and stay there through 2020-2021. So the schedule was for 15 deliveries in 2018. That was before one of our many deferrals that took that number down, only to go back up to 10, which is still only 2/3 of what it was scheduled to be. This at a time when our airline and the entire industry has never been more profitable!
Stagnation is subjective. Yes, literally it means what you said. Some of us consider us to be stagnant when our seniority movement at this "GROWTH" airline falls well behind that at those "failed model" old crusty legacies.
We've already established our growth is slowing. Lower ASM forecasts, fewer deliveries and/or same number of deliveries added to an ever larger fleet count base each year, seniority list growing by the same number of pilots even though the list is larger (lower percentage growth), etc ... Our growth is slowing, yet we have no retirements. That, to some of us, is stagnating. You are correct, not LITERALLY.
As an example, if you are 50% up our seniority list, and we add 180 pilots to the bottom of our seniority list as planned, you don't move up 5%, you move up 2.5%. At a "growth" airline. Our 13 or so retirements this year are statistically irrelevant.
Now United is forecasting ASM growth for the next 3 years higher than we are, and because of their "scope choke", it will primarily be mainline growth. In addition, they have hundreds of retirements that come off the top of the list, so if 7% of the list retires, you move up 7% PLUS growth. And they have a great contract!
Delta has similar numbers. They don't forecast quite as much ASM growth, but because they are actively"upgauging" they are growing the mainline seniority list much faster than their ASM forecast suggests. They are hiring for mainline growth and significant retirements. Plus a great contract.
I know you know all this. And I know we agree, these days, on quite a lot. So understand that some of us believe we are stagnating relative to prior seniority PERCENTAGE movement and relative to our "failed model" peers.
In the end, until this contract is settled and the company stops withholding 30% of my compensation, retirement and QOL, I will not lift one tiny finger on a keyboard to "correct the record" about our pay, benefits or career progression.
JB can defend it's own record, we shouldn't be doing their work for them right now. My opinion, of course.