Originally Posted by
symbian simian
While I agree with most, not everyone will upgrade in 5 years, or be able to if they wanted. That would require 50% of the pilot group to retire at zero growth. With the current growth and retirement close to 8 years if hired today.
Do you have numbers to support 8 years? Here’s where’re I’m getting my numbers..
June CA award - 11,107 (PHL 320 FO awarded LGA 737 CA)
Nov New Hire - 14,900
Projected Retirement (see pic)
So a new hire needs to move up 3,800, realistically around 3,000 as guys will go to widebody or pass upgrade for other reasons.
2022 - 3,636 will retire.
2026 - 7,385 will retire.
Junior wide-body CA (JFK 767) is a 5,000 number. That 12 years of retirements.