Originally Posted by
davessn763
So someone else did the math for us. The seniority progression report at reunion lane predicts when you can hold a seat based on current staffing and retirements. I plugged in the employee number of the junior pilot on the seniority list in July 2014. He will hold SFO 320CA in April 2022 or about 8 years after he was hired. Assuming the aggressive 4-6% of growth you are predicting there will be about 800 more captain seats in the next 3 years or about 2 years worth of retirements. So just by retirements it will take him 8 years to upgrade and assuming your growth model it will take him 6 years.
I agree with you that we will not be retiring any aircraft in the next 5 years. Our oldest airframes the 767-300’s are going through cabin reconfig now, and our older narrowbody a/c the A320’s have had cabin updates as well.
Dan’s seniority tool is great but it doesn’t tell the entire story. Since I’v been at UA I’v kept track of the number of pilots bypassing upgrade and 1/3 historically bypass. Also it has ALL pilots on the Seniority list including furloughed pilots, military, LOA, instructors etc. IF you go into CCS and look from about 10,000 down we have a ton of post merger hires out on mil leave.
So 2022 would be correct if every single pilot upgraded at first opportunity, which we all know will not be the case.
Also I’m not predicting 4-6% growth.....the company is.