"The scope limit, coupled with a readily available supply of 50-seat jets and a drive to reduce aircraft capital expenditures, appear to be driving United's CRJ200 surge this year.
United aims to address scope. The airline plans to push for relief to expand its large regional jet fleet in its next pilots' contract, which could come as soon as January 2019. Negotiations with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) can begin in May.
"We can wind up turning 50 seaters into larger regional jets, but we make some kind of commitment to them, whether it's a growth commitment or jobs," says Kirby. He believes that by continuing to expand the airline's mainline operations it can convince pilots that it does not plan to outsource jobs to lower-cost regional partners if it gets scope relief.
Analysts are wary of this view. Keay expects pilots to demand a "generous raise" in exchange for scope relief in the next round of negotiations."
Expand until the next contract is signed then swoosh shrink the mainline and outsource jobs. Lot a good a generous raise will do when you don’t have a job and everyone else who does moves down a notch in position and pay.