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From reading the various forums, it appears that approximately 400 pilots left Envoy last year (including the flow).
So, you will accelerate fairly quickly for the first year or so. Then, an ever increasing percentage of the attrition will move below you until you finally flow. The last six months prior to your flow will probably see very little outside attrition affecting your flow date.
The equation isn’t as simple as number of pilots on the list right now divided by rate of flow. That assumes everyone stays and everyone flows. Also factor in that 5-10% of the senior folks on the list list will decline the flow.
So 2300 pilots minus 150-ish declining.
Total list now 2150. The following is all just best guess based on flow and outside attrition estimates (back of the napkin numbers only):
400 - Year 1
350 - Year 2
300 - Year 3
300 - Year 4
300 - Year 5
250 - Year 6
250 - Year 7
Total = 2150
The math is really loose, but 6-7 years is not unrealistic in this environment. The numbers above are my prediction on how the total attrition ahead of a new pilot will play out through their years of service. Assumptions (such as annual attrition outisde he flow) play a big part. Zero that out and you’re looking at 9-10+ years.
I hope you’re correct, believe me as I currently sit at a 12/22 flow date. However, attrition may reduce the time but if the company drops below 25 a month that will certainly offset it. Originally Posted by Whiskey4
9.5 years is with zero attrition outside the flow. Do you really think not a single pilot will leave this airline for Delta, United, SWA, retirement, etc. Plus attrition can safely be assumed to increase as we get deeper into the hiring curve.From reading the various forums, it appears that approximately 400 pilots left Envoy last year (including the flow).
So, you will accelerate fairly quickly for the first year or so. Then, an ever increasing percentage of the attrition will move below you until you finally flow. The last six months prior to your flow will probably see very little outside attrition affecting your flow date.
The equation isn’t as simple as number of pilots on the list right now divided by rate of flow. That assumes everyone stays and everyone flows. Also factor in that 5-10% of the senior folks on the list list will decline the flow.
So 2300 pilots minus 150-ish declining.
Total list now 2150. The following is all just best guess based on flow and outside attrition estimates (back of the napkin numbers only):
400 - Year 1
350 - Year 2
300 - Year 3
300 - Year 4
300 - Year 5
250 - Year 6
250 - Year 7
Total = 2150
The math is really loose, but 6-7 years is not unrealistic in this environment. The numbers above are my prediction on how the total attrition ahead of a new pilot will play out through their years of service. Assumptions (such as annual attrition outisde he flow) play a big part. Zero that out and you’re looking at 9-10+ years.
It’s basically a crap shoot to be honest. We are completely at this whim of the company.