Originally Posted by
sailingfun
Take reality into account and you certainly can compare the two. A 762 would get eaten alive by a 753. Especially if the 753 can come to market years in advance and have commonality with 10,000 other narrowbody jets.
And lie flat seats? For a domestic jet? How many do you really need? Is this like bragging about the 3000 mile range of a cseries when nobody needs a 3000 mile range on a 1000 mile regional jet replacement mission?
Anyways...
https://leehamnews.com/2017/05/10/airbus-can-kill-boeing-797/
Iffy business case, so far
The business case for the 797 so far remains iffy. LNC believes Boeing “has” to do the airplane, because of the weakness of the 737-9 and 737-10, and the clear trend toward essentially abandoning the 787-8. This creates a huge product gap for Boeing.
But designing and building the 797-6 and 797-7 at a cost that will permit sales in the $70m-$80m range is problematic at best.
(The 797-6 is roughly the same size as the Boeing 767-200 and the -7 is about the size of the 767-300.)
Much of the business case appears to rest on tying aftermarket service contracts for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) with 797 sales, LNC’s market sources tell us. Wells Fargo aerospace analyst Sam Pearlstein reported the same in a research note last month.
Furthermore, the market demand remains a question. Boeing now claims there is demand for about 5,000 airplanes in the MOM sector. If so, this could comfortably support Airbus and Boeing aircraft.
But others—LNC included—believe the market, while significant, is quite a bit smaller than 5,000.
Entry-into-Service
The most commonly discussed entry-into-service for the 797 is 2024-2025, though LNC has heard it could slip to 2026. The EIS depends entirely on engine availability.
The engine needs to have 45,000-50,000 lbs thrust. CFM and GE Aviation would jointly produce one, said Safran in its recent earnings call. Safran is 50% owner of CFM, with GE owning the other 50%.
Rolls-Royce also said publicly it will compete with an entirely new engine.
Pratt & Whitney would offer a larger version of its GTF.
Since CFM and RR are pursuing entirely new engines, while PW would up-scale its GTF, PW may be in a position to provide Airbus with a powerplant for the A322 before CFM and RR could offer a new engine for the 797.
Getting the jump
Might Airbus be able to offer an A322 with an EIS two or more years ahead of the 797?
If so, launching the A322 sooner than later (and at a much lower cost will put Airbus in a position to capture the lower end of the MOM Sector. This will undermine the case for the 797-6—and this reduce the business case for the 797-7.
And this is how Airbus might kill the 797 before it gets off the ground.