For 2017, AA hired 645.

Of those, 360 (56%) were flows (263 from Envoy, 52 from PSA, and 45 from PDT.) There were 225 (35%) Mil OTS and 60 (9%) Civ OTS.

So, very few slots were Civ OTS hires, which is were someone jumping the flow would be categorized.


Now, the current forecast for 2018 is to hire 920 (best info, although lots will disagree - reverified by the Schoolhouse a week ago). That is an increase of 275 MORE hires. Where will they come from? Unless flows change, not much there. Unless they can wrangle a higher percentage of Mil coming available, not much there.

A reasonable forecast would be a significant amount of those ADDITIONAL 275 slots will be from Civ OTS. That is a radical change from were it has been (only 60). It may approach the number of flow hires. And we have not even hit the peak retirements.

Again, some here will strongly disagree, saying hiring will stop because furloughs are around the corner despite massive retirements. Others will say there is some other magic pot of Mil OTS that are just waiting to be hired. But, this is the way I see it.