Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
Current May 2018 eff CA in SEA was hired May 2013, so it's 5 yrs for a guy hired 5 yrs ago. AS has lots of bypassers from 2007 and prior. VX retires about 130 next 10 yrs, AS about 490, total 10 yr (2018-2027) retirement = 620. The next 10 yrs after becomes 830ish retirements. That's about 1,500 retirements over 20 yrs for a pilot group about 2,900.
The biggest unknown going forward is the fleet plan. The latest SEC filing shows that they are planning on deferring some planes in 2019. The 320NEOs and 737MAXs are suppose to come starting 2020. It remains to be seen what they decide to defer and for how long. That will have the largest short-term impact on upgrade times. I'm a VX guy who bypassed but if a bid comes out before the SLI I'll probably take it.
The fact is the industry is different than it was. This has happened many times and if you ask me it will happen again and again, but the fact remains that at this moment in time the Legacys hold an outsized advantage. At this moment in time given the facts available, you would be a fool to choose the bottom of the Alaska seniority list versus a major seniority list.
Truth is I would recommend any person in their 20s to pursue an alternative career.
First, people will be comfortable with driverless cabs and then it will be driverless trains, but my guess is a new generation of passengers will soon be comfortable with 1 or even 0 pilots so pick a different career.