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Old 03-01-2018 | 09:00 AM
  #132  
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ZapBrannigan
Furloughed Again?!
15 Years
 
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,948
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From: Boeing 737
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Originally Posted by RJSAviator76
With 60% being the magic number...



900 new hires per year + scheduled pilot retirements though 2021 = 2014 hires reaching 60% in the first half of 2021.



I think 2015-2016 hires will reach 60% in the first half of 2022 as Age 65 retirements accelerate in 2021 onward.



This is also not taking into account any early-outs.



There's my napkin math. The question is... being a commuter Zap, would you take the first available upgrade?

Thanks for doing the math for us. I appreciate it! Also keeping in mind that the economy is cyclical and it’s unlikely that it will continue to fire on all cylinders for the next 5 years.

I don’t commute anymore. Gave up and moved to domicile a couple of years ago because of the fact that there were no commutable lines. (at least for me, commuting offline to a different airport and taking the train from there to my domicile)

That said, my child is 11 years old right now. He has about 5 and a half more years at home before he heads to college. I will want to be home for all of those important milestones over those 5-6 years. Games, concerts, dances, first dates, graduation, and as much summer and holiday vacation as I can wrangle.

So, while I can’t guess how the temptation of seeing classmates upgrade might make me feel.... at the moment I would say no, I wouldn’t plan on the first upgrade. I’d wait until he goes to college in 2024 or so. Easy to say that when I’m not faced with the choice though.

Fwiw that would leave me with about 13 years in the left seat before retirement.


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