Originally Posted by
ConfCodeCOOL
They haven't throttled it that hard. We've seen plenty of months of 12-16 captain upgrades, which pretty much matches or exceeds attrition, keep in mind a decent % of our attrition has been FO's leaving, not all certainly, but just because 20-25 leave a month, it's never 20 captains a month... it's always some % of that. Also, classes are starting to be OK. 8 is starting down the bad path of being short captains, but they do have other "levers they can pull" such as raising the floor, TDY's (which we have already seen), etc. The actual footprint for captain upgrade is VERY small and quick, they can get 30 more captains on the line pretty quick (the biggest hold up being waiting for the fed ride), not so compared to FO's. Keep in mind captains already know how to fly the plane and the captain flows are very minimal, it's a few FPTs and sims and a leadership class and boom you are a captain here... IOE is still airplanes being flown and moved around as they are needed, so even though those captains aren't bidders, they're still flying (granted, it takes two captains out of the system as line check airmen are all captains obviously...)
They also historically run fatter on captains for vacations, SLIPs, line check airmen etc, some of that buffer can be run a little bit leaner for a month or two.
Lot of very good points. Nonetheless, everyone taking a job at compass has other choices and is betting THEIR CAREERS in aviation on management too to some extent on the successful execution of management, so the "hubris and lack of foresight" so concern that the "hubris and lack of foresight" does not recur seems warranted.
Now while I would concede that indeed the process of captain upgrade is quicker than FO qual, it is quicker ONLY for those already possessing 1000 hours of 121 time, which will not soon be the case for the vast majority of those hired after the freeze. And yes, I'd concede (and even be heartened by) the fact that not everyone leaving to go on to bigger and better things is a captain, I would be greatly surprised if the high time (and hence upgradable) FOs were not over represented in this group. It's just basic queuing theory. The input was disrupted long enough that there will be ripples for a complete cycle - maybe slightly longer. And while those ripples ought indeed to be manageable, they do need to be managed, not left to work themselves out because ofbhubris and lack of foresight.