Originally Posted by ShyGuy

As a senior FO who has apps at the big 3, I talk to FOs as I come across and ask if they have their stuff out. My own experience, the majority of them don't have their stuff out - certainly not 8 in 10.

The problem with being 5th best is that it's only worth leaving for the 4 best above it. UAL has pulled down their hiring plans for this year, and last year they didn't even have any classes from ~March til December. AA is a simple game of military and flow math. If out of a 100 slots, 50 go military, then 35 are flows and guarantees from Envoy/PSA/Piedmont, and only about 15% true off the street hires. Chances are slim to nil for AA as a civilian OTS. That leaves Delta, which actually has hired like gangbusters, but getting a call there is still hard and a mystery. Going to their ATL job fair doesn't guarantee an interview, nor does any job fair for that matter. The 4th place is Southwest, and IMO I wouldn't leave AS/VX to go start over at SW. Same airplane, same domestic schedule with 2-5 legs/day, and a huge paycut for most people for the first several years. You'll be a FO at Southwest probably just as long as a newhire will be FO here at Alaska, and that's based on projected growth and retirement numbers (both of which are significantly less than at the 3 legacy carriers).

So that's the situation. Leaving isn't easy when you're at the 5th best. (The above doesn't include UPS/Fedex, as their flying wouldn't be my cup of tea).