I don't know how many will be needed per year but when you think of just more than just retirements and factor in growth, it seems feasible the number could be in the 6K range per year. Great Lakes just closed their doors, and solely attributed it to the lack of pilots, this would have been unheard of 7 to 10 years ago. (hoping all you great lakers quickly land on your feet)
But for today the regionals are going to have to up their game just to stay in business. Right now SkyWest is so behind the curve, i just don't know if the recovery can happen. This could be start of demise. A new pilot came up to me today just to say goodbye, said Friday was his last day. Of course I asked him where he was going, expecting to hear Delta, SouthWest, etc. He said he was going back to developing some type of software, getting out of aviation, but maybe not forever? But at least for the next few years. Said the new change in reserve rules was too much to handle, the terrible pay and zero QOL were not worth it to be at SkyWest. He asked if I knew so and so, I did, and he said that guy was leaving for the same reason.
The reserve rules changed recently at SkyWest, that basically took what is an absolutely terrible QOL and and made it far worse. A new idea for reserve notification was approved and the company saw the grand canyon size loop hole in the wording and jumped on it to the complete and sole benefit of the company. The company is doing nothing, they love it.
I just can't believe people still apply here?