I don't have my numbers with me, but I think they were based on being 7000 from the bottom at AA, which is around the 45th percentile in a group of close to 15,000 pilots. The junior NB bases can be had at ~5000 from the bottom (33rd percentile)while the most junior NB CA at the most senior base is 8000-9000 from the bottom (IIRC). 45th percentile seems like a reasonable metric considering some more senior FOs will not upgrade, instead choosing to remain FOs for the associated QOL. Again, that doesn't count the E195 since it is going away (allegedly) and when it does those 2-year CAs will get displaced back to the right seat. Also, they'll have the MD-80 displacements that pull the other Group 2+ seniority up.

As the retirements peak the upgrade times come back up. A 2023 AA new hire would be back at 10+ years to upgrade given only mandatory retirement attrition and my 45th percentile metric. The real question is if the 33rd percentile CA upgrade at junior bases will be the norm or a rarity.

This also doesn't take any additional growth into consideration. At this point the AA hiring goals barely account for the mandatory retirements, much less additional pilots for growth.

As a AA WO regional guy I haven't worked these numbers for DL, UAL, or SWA yet since I'm years away from being competitive for OTS hiring (at least in my mind).

Even if AA's WOs and other regionals come out with an off-cycle $20/hr raise across the board, we're not going to see 2nd year Spirit FO pay, even in the left seat.

I guess my question for anyone on the inside at any of the "majors" is: Do you have additional input regarding upgrade times in the coming retirement wave and are adjustments to upgrade time predicated on additional growth beyond retirement attrition (like it seems Spirit's current upgrades are)?