Originally Posted by
flensr
I saw some numbers in the magazine, somewhere around 100 CAs and 100 FOs currently live in SoCal area. I figure after that first 100, it'll be somewhat junior based on cost of living and the fact that LAX (and associated airports) isn't any easier of a commute than LAS and it's prohibitively expensive to move out there.
Early "best guess" I've heard tossed around by people who have been here a while is it'll go junior by mid-2019.
But that's still just a guess.
I don't think it's gonna go senior at all. I talked to some SoCal locals and they don't get excited to bid LAX at all. There are multiple reason, but one uniform complaint is traffic. If you live in Ontario or closer to SAN for example, it's faster to fly to LAS that fight the traffic to LAX. Also the whole ETOPS thing, extra training every year, reduced flexibility of schedule in a small base, base lock, etc. On top of that, I heard there are some people that own a place in LAS just to pay Nevada taxes while living in SoCal. Those will continue commuting. I predict a lot of new hires and junior captains going there against their will. It's just a subjective prediction of a guy who has been wrong many times before.