Could be 15 years, probably less based on how many are leaving. But don't count on less than 10 years unless something changes.
Upgrades are the worst thing at NJA right now, the good things are basing, fantastic health insurance, and having Berkshire Hathaway backing your company. The company is trying to play nice with the union, time will tell if they're sincere. We do have a great union. No one is even bothering to oppose the current Union Officers in the upcoming election.
A lot of speculation about increases in pay and quality of life issues due to recruiting problems. But our contract isn't amendable for quite a few more years. Company has not come off the 2500 hour requirement like Flops/Flex had to do. In the last 30 days we hired 7 pilots but lost 19. If you interview remember they're more concerned with customer service than how well you can fly.
Edit: I should have mentioned the main reasons for long upgrade times is a young pilot group and the fact we're staffed at around 67% Captains and 33% F/O's. Company wants 60/40 ratio.