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Old 04-26-2018 | 03:00 PM
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TransWorld
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Joined: Aug 2016
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From: Fully Retired
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Originally Posted by havick206
Here’s a realistic question, with all the other legacies along with cargo and decent other airlines having the same level of retirements, where do you think these pilots are going to come from?
At peak, in about 5 years, I estimate 1 in 5 regional pilots will be hired each year by the majors. 80% of the flow interested CA at Envoy each year would be significantly higher than that average. (Quick math - 20% of all the regional pilots vs. 40% of the Envoy pilots in a year.)

I previously have stated here my crystal ball prediction:

Within 5 to 10 years there will be 1/4 of the regionals still around with 1/2 the total number of regional pilots.

A lot of 50 seaters will be parked, with fewer per day 76 seaters taking their place.

Some of the 76 seaters will be replaced by the 100-120 seaters (CS100 etc) flown by the majors. The majors may even take back some of the 76 seaters flying. Kind of real speculation on that.

Finally, I predict some civilian pilots will be hired directly by the majors, without working for the regionals nor the military, just like they used to in the 1950s-1960s.

When CFI find they can get hired directly at FO Group I (Using AA terminology) pay at the majors and the regionals start paying something close to that, there will be a lot aspiring pilots applying. (Economics 101 says when starting pay like burger flippers at McDonalds transitions to near 100K starting pay; pay commencerate with the professional occupation, lots of people will choose the career.) Pay for a cadet program of some sort may enter the picture for thousand of those aspiring pilots.

Check back in a decade to see the accuracy of my predictions.

I will now put my crystal ball away.

Last edited by TransWorld; 04-26-2018 at 03:11 PM.
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