Originally Posted by TransWorld

At peak, in about 5 years, I estimate 1 in 5 regional pilots will be hired each year by the majors. 80% of the flow interested CA at Envoy each year would be significantly higher than that average. (Quick math - 20% of all the regional pilots vs. 40% of the Envoy pilots in a year.)

I previously have stated here my crystal ball prediction:

Within 5 to 10 years there will be 1/4 of the regionals still around with 1/2 the total number of regional pilots.

A lot of 50 seaters will be parked, with fewer per day 76 seaters taking their place.

Some of the 76 seaters will be replaced by the 100-120 seaters (CS100 etc) flown by the majors. The majors may even take back some of the 76 seaters flying. Kind of real speculation on that.

Finally, I predict some civilian pilots will be hired directly by the majors, without working for the regionals nor the military, just like they used to in the 1950s-1960s.

When CFI find they can get hired directly at FO Group I (Using AA terminology) pay at the majors and the regionals start paying something close to that, there will be a lot aspiring pilots applying. (Economics 101 says when starting pay like burger flippers at McDonalds transitions to near 100K starting pay; pay commencerate with the professional occupation, lots of people will choose the career.) Pay for a cadet program of some sort may enter the picture for thousand of those aspiring pilots.

Check back in a decade to see the accuracy of my predictions.

I will now put my crystal ball away.