I agree with you, basically what I said. That is why I said the majors will be hiring some amount of 23 year old CFI directly off the street at Group I rates (currently FO starting at $88/hour). The remaining regionals will have to double their current FO rates to something like that to stay in the game.

The number of pilots working for the regional airlines will greatly reduce. Regionals will consolidate or go out of business. (Island Air and Great Lakes are just the tip of the iceberg.) if you want my projection of who survives PM me.

The industry will finally get enough new hires when the pay goes up a large amount. If someone gets that much shortly after college, it will be a starting pay more than the average engineers, scientists, pharmacists, accountants, and lawyers. Only doctors will get paid more. Of course, a pilot’s view out the office window is more impressive, as well.