Originally Posted by BeatNavy

We don't have 5-7% seniority list growth. We have 5-7% ASM growth because we are adding seats to our A320s and taking delivery of 10-13 planes a year. The proper number to look at is our delivery schedule. The hiring numbers recently posted show a goal of 265 this year, less attrition, which will result in rough 150-200 added to a 3600 deep seniority list. Thats between 4-5% growth.

The best way to look at our growth is to multiply our deliveries by 14, the number at which we staff our airline. 10 deliveries this year, 13 next, and 13 the next. If we give back any of our E190s when the leases expire, that could negate any Airbus delivery seniority list growth.

By my napkin math, we have 93 airplanes remaining to be delivered by 2024. By that time, some of our oldest A320s will be long in the tooth, and probably ready for retirement/replacement/lease return/etc., so there's a very good possibility that we won't have a net gain of 93 airplanes. I also highly doubt by 2024 that the 60 E190s currently on property will still be on property. Whether or not they are replaced at a 1:1 ratio with E195E2/CS100/CS300s is to be seen.

The fleet review will be very telling of the future of this airline. Without growth, this place is going to be a terrible place to hang your hat for anyone hired in the last year or two, and certainly going forward.

Worst case I can think of is the E190s go away, or at least the 30 leases that will be up in the next few years, some old leased A320s get returned, and we stay around 3,500-4,000 pilots, with little attrition over the next decade. Best case: we get a contract that requires more staffing per plane, we keep 60 100-130 seat airplanes, keep all our airbuses, and the 93 airbuses to be delivered all make it here on time. That would put us at 5,000-5,500 pilots by 2024.

So could be 5-10% growth over the next 7 years, or 30-40% growth. Do you gamble with legacy retirements (minus age 67 stalling that for a couple years) with good contracts, or gamble with labor-hating, no contract jetblue with possible growth? Tough call. Hope it works out for us.