Originally Posted by
seaav8tor
Sadly a newbie looking back 30 years has to project 30 into the future, in which case the trend is NOT your friend. There is nothing in place to reverse the trend right now but a bunch of hot air "We're Taking it back", "Fix it Now", etc. Nice but no credible action behind it.
There are several items in place or in motion to continue the trend. Further improvements in automation, NextGen ATC, MPL, Labor laws, Age 65, etc.
Well, I certainly hope that I'm not the newbie, I was simply trying to put some context on the value of pilots. I do think that the trend will continue for the next few years, but with the rate non-legacy options are becoming better, I don't think it's far fetched saying that the majors will be forced to improve their compensation packages, otherwise they won't have enough pull from foreign carriers, freight carriers, LCCs, corporate, private aviation (not everybody wants to fly the big jets!), other sectors outside aviation, and, last but not least, a few of the top tier regionals to fill their ranks, which will in turn cause painful growth hampering.
I'll definitely side with you that the further automation of the industry isn't going to help our cause, though, but you have to keep in mind that while there are these trends pointing downward in pilot workload, there are also positive factors that counter them. Take for an example a pilot flying into LGA. The pilot today has much, much better equipment to provide situational awareness and aid in controlling the aircraft, but the pilot of thirty years ago likely had two other pilots in the cockpit (one extra one over today) and much less congested airspace. You lose a little, you gain a little. Would I say that it's easier or harder to fly today that it was 30 years ago? Well, unfortunately, I don't have QUITE that much scope to work with, but it's certainly something to consider.
Pilot workloads have and will continue to shift around to different responsibilities, and I personally think that a lot of the automation doomsday talk is a little silly. After Jimmy Doolittle made his first completely blind flight in 1929, did people say "oh, look at the avionics advances, well, flying's going to be a lot easier from here on out". Well, maybe, but I wouldn't say it did, it simply progressed from one challenge to another one.