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Old 05-05-2018, 05:35 PM
  #16  
wjcandee
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 493
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Hi, Cliff. I appreciate that information, but, me at least, I don't buy either one of those rumors. Could Amazon buy a smaller number of new-build 767-300? Sure, maybe 20 with 20 options or something. But to go 60 or a hundred makes very little sense to me. If they're smart, which they are, they will look at every option. But in terms of what they choose to buy, I don't see it, nor do I see a need for something as small as the sky courier when trying to service second day parcels. If you're doing 2-day, you can put them on the ground. I would be thinking 737 or maybe 757 as the next move. I also don't buy the idea that there aren't enough 767 available in the time frame in which new build would be available. The current supply of decent frames is very tight, but there will be some good, relatively young frames coming offline in the next couple of years. If Amazon needs a hundred 767, then, yeah, that's not going to be serviceable from the supply. But if they're talking smaller numbers, it should be doable. Finally, nothing substantial should be likely to happen until they have their own organic sort capability. DHL is maxed out in the day, so everything new ends up bypassing CVG. For a variety of reasons, that's not practical in volumes much higher than currently exist, without some interim capital investment, which doesn't make sense to make, before the sort is available. Doesn't mean they won't do it, of course, but logically the plan should be closer to what I'm thinking it's going to be.
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