I heard from an instructor that the Jan classes were very low but that that is usual due to the holidays. Heard Feb and March were better. Confirmed class of 13 a few weeks ago per someone that spoke to the class. Heard we now have 3 sims leased full time - up from 2, and that is helping the turnaround time some.

That said the numbers coming in the door to ATW are not as important as the numbers coming off IOE. That number I have no clue on.

On the upgrade front - 2 years 9 months was the peak, and is now at 2 years 11 months as of June. Last vacancy for July had no upgrades and I believe that is only the second month skipped since upgrades started last fall. I do think 24 months is still realistic as we are now upgrading 2015 hires and a lot left AWA pre-United CPA announcement and then we didn’t hire many in 2016 in addition to those that moved on during the uncertainty of our future that year. So I still think 24 months is still realistic for the 2017 hires. 18 months? Don’t see that right now anyway.

As far as reserve times I couldn’t say. Looks like the IAD junior FO line holder is July 2017 and that is the most senior base on both seats by far. So if ORD or MKE are increasing in regards to reserve times, then it’s all relative since it would still be very low. The people I talk to say they spent 1-3 months in reserve in those bases. Spoke to a MKE line holder recently that got a line while still in ATW when MKE opened. So any reserve time would be an increase if the baseline is “0”.