I was told by the DO in initial ground school that pilot bases are a function of having planes on the ground so mx can do inspections. 8 hours of down time. If the schedules don't provide that, it'll never be a base.
So if you start to see the schedules spread apart with airplanes sitting at gates overnight, it's logical to assume the company is trying to see if a base is feasible.
He also said that the pilots will be the last to know.