This seems more likely to me as well. United won’t cut off their nose to spite their face. AWA can’t give us 65 a/c? Fine we will still take 50. Most UAX carriers are having some level of staffing issues, or did, or will. Could any take on 65 a/c worth of flying right now? I don’t see it. Mesa is struggling on the Ejet side and CommutAir is just now starting grow very slowly. With TSA and ExpressJet loosing AA they may have some room but they will loose pilots in the process as those AA bases close. So a maybe there. Rebublic and GoJet do not fly 50 seaters. Skywest? They already have growth plans on a few CPAs so adding even more right now maybe a bridge too far.

So even if UA wanted to, they couldn’t.

The two best things that could happen to AWA right now to attract newbies AND retain current pilots would be a very good to great TA and a new base that will help and not hurt recruitment. Denver would be a great choice. Shrink MKE in half, pull down some lines from ORD, grow IAD by 20% to help keep our current east coasters happy. DEN would have a few very senior on top of the CA list but like MKE, would fall off after that.

But us loosing the contract is not even remotely a concern of mine right now.