You are competing for an extremely small number of slots with thousands of other applicants, MANY, MANY that are also highly qualified.
2018 looks about the same percentages as the graph below, just larger numbers of new hires overall this year.
So for reference on what you are competing for, 2017 example: you are trying to get one of those 60 civilian off the street slots. (A VERY IMPORTANT non PC thing this graph doesn't show is at least half of those 60, more than likely went to diversity hiring). Embrace it, Accept it, learn to Love it, lol. It seems to be working for them and It is the new reality at ALL companies in this day and age. So getting down to brass tacks, really you are competing for about 30 slots or less IN A YEAR in that Purple sliver on the right side of the graph. 2018 will be 800-900 new hires I think they claim, so about 76 slots off the street maintaining the same 9-10% (non mil) off the street hire per class/year. Then cut that 76 in half to get your true competition number, unless you can check a diversity box that will improve your odds of getting a call. That is the current reality of what you are facing. Those odds are not great with thousands of apps on file from the lost decade of CA's racking up thousands of hours of TPIC. There is literally Thousands of HIGHLY qualified regional guys out there, not to mention everyone else.
For example: Like many others out there, I had multiple Jet type ratings, over a decade of 121, perfect training record, high GPA, 121 Check Airman, years of 121 TPIC, tons of volunteer time, diverse employment background with lots of accomplishments pre aviation, countless internal recs, job fairs, which I showed up at physically fit with a nice suit and professionally done resume "if that stuff even matters" who knows. App in for as long as I can remember and never a phone call, not a sniff, not a peep from any Legacy. Ever. I thought type rating number 5 may help, Nope, More TPIC? Nope. Ok, Check Airman will finally get me a call for sure? Nope. Professional resume review/guidance may help? Nope. None of it got me past whatever crazy hiring matrix there is. Maybe it's just me? Would make more sense if I at least got an interview and then bombed it, but I never did, so I don't think that's it. Also hardly any of my similarly qualified check airman friends got calls (at the big 3) either over the years, thinking we were doing all the right things to move up our career's. So who knows. Honestly, I wouldn't be here at AA now without flow through. It is what it is. People talk trash on flow being a joke on this website constantly, but I am thankful for the opportunity and it got me out of Regional hell. Finally.
I have to say, we all know it is EXTREMELY frustrating seeing FAR less qualified people hired at the Legacy carriers over the years, with pretty much no life experience, hardly any job experience, no Captain experience even as they get hired from the regional FO seat, but finally I just accepted the new reality of hiring practices and just moved on with life. I see it in other fields as well, it's not just a pilot thing. Personally, I just stuck it out forever at a wholly owned carrier eating American Eagle crap sandwiches for what felt like an eternity. Without hopping around to tempting other opportunities that kept popping up (like many other peers did). I just stuck it out waiting for my number to come up, realizing hiring is the way it is now. I have no illusions thinking I would be at a Legacy right now without Flow. Seems ridiculous whenever you see those token 23-25yr old people with virtually no life/work/practical experience hired at Legacy carriers, sometimes with multiple offers shockingly, but whattayagonna do other than shake your head and roll with it? It is what it is. Good for them I guess. Life isn't fair. This career has definitely proven that lesson to me at least!
Years ago when a lot of us started flying we were all told to get 121 TPIC and become a Check Airman and you will be at a Major ASAP. That isn't the case anymore with HR heavily involved in the hiring process at these carriers now. That unwritten rule of THE path to a Legacy is in need of a re-write. Being the most qualified pilot "on paper" doesn't guarantee you ANYTHING these days. It probably should, but from what I have seen over the years at DAL, UAL and AA.. it is really becoming almost irrelevant. So plan accordingly. AA in particular is virtually impossible off the street for a civilian guy right now. Certainly no harm in applying and trying your butt off, but the odds are just not good. Just based off percentages of what is left over after Flow-through/Military, the odds are just not in your favor. Imagine a stadium full of 10,000 great civilian guys with tons of experience and they are only going to pick about 40 of them for the year.
Saying all that, I do think AA did a good job with my new hire class. I felt like it was a really good group overall. Flow/MIL and Diverse, just like I expected.
