Unintended Consequences
I will say that I am still very interested in improving retirement and not at all opposed to exploring options. The one thing that concerns me more than investment risk with the VB plan is how it will change our whole upgrade timeline at this company.
The current high 5 model allows you to upgrade later in your career yet not have it adversely affect your pension. Many delay upgrading for QOL or other reasons. This in turn allows others who are ready to upgrade sooner and accept being junior in return for a bigger check now. Both groups benefit.
With the VB plan where every year and every dollar count towards increasing or decreasing your pension there is a huge disincentive to delay upgrading since it will cost you money now AND in your retirement. The modeler video discusses an option that would predict pay increases/upgrade based on historical numbers. Those would likely change. How much money will it cost you NOW if your upgrade gets delayed 2, 3, 5 years? How much bigger will your pension need to be and how long do you have to live to make that up? A 3 year delay in going WB FO to WB captain can cost you ~$250-300k in lost income now. What is the value of that money if you invest it for retirement?
What happens if the VB goes through and guys demand a realignment bid...age 65 sound familiar. What will that do for unity? Where will the union stand? If you’re a 100% upgrade type or a QOL delay upgrade type the rules of the game will change. No longer will the incentive to live in Memphis and upgrade at 100% be as lucrative. Commuters may be compelled to upgrade at 100% and sit the reserve they have wanted to avoid.
This VB plan can be better for some folks. It might not be as good for others. Consider how your upgrade/seniority progression might be affected when you punch your numbers in the modeler and it spits out what you MIGHT make if the model’s assumptions are correct and the stock market timing works for you.