You’ll be locked into the next seat for two years. I’d try and predict the future -

1. figure out your yearly seniority number improvement. Compare what you’d hold at the one and two year mark using the 4XP’s.

2. (better) - use the APA 3XP’s and find out how many senior guys retire in the base you’re evaluating. Pick a percentage (80%??) and assume that many n/b FO’s senior to you bid into the seats bring vacated by retirees.

3. See what sort of trips you can expect to hold using #1 or #2 ^

Using these assumptions might give you a better feel for what bid status would be better over a two year span.