You’re not wrong. Pilot supply is no different than part supply to a production line. The choke point in pilot supply is the experience gain between commercial certification and starting class at a major. The needs of majors will put a huge strain on regionals as we move forward. By pure numbers the regionals are going to become the largest supplier, military will still be there but their own staffing constraints compared to pilot availability will limit the numbers leaving for majors.

So, if each major will need to hire 800-1000 pilots every year for the better part of the next decade they will most likely have to pull somewhere in the region of 5-600 pilots from the regionals. Since the trend is to be in control of your own pipeline 80% of those pilots would come from one, maybe two sources, in our case most likely Endeavor. So let’s say 3-400 pilots a year come from them. They currently should be in the region of 1800-2000 pilots at the company. That means near a quarter of the list needs to be hired every year. That also means a quarter of the list will be upgrading every year. So half of the pilots would have a full course training event every year. One hiccup in recruiting creates a visible staffing problem and costs even more to fix (good for pilots though).

This type of program also should help Delta continue attracting the most talented and motivated in our field, which generally produces pilots that are enthusiastic and more enjoyable to fly with. A potential problem is the stigma they may receive at Endeavor with pilots that have been unsuccessful in their Delta interview. But, we all have to learn to fly with people who don’t like us.

Hopefully they get this program right, help young pilots offset some of the cost, either early money or specified timetable to start at Delta to make the financial decisions more clear. Also not creating ego maniacs would be great too.