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Old 06-28-2018 | 06:37 AM
  #28  
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robthree
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Originally Posted by Hilltopper89
Highly doubt this happens any time soon. They haven't figured out how to not kill people with self driving cars yet. Self driving airplanes are more than my lifetime away.
Fully self-driving airplanes are old news. Like 15+ years ago we used autonomous drones for recon. Self-landing airplanes are even older.

Error resistance to the 4th decimal place is what they are working on.

Self driving cars are here. Now. Self driving cars that kill people less frequently than human driven cars are a refinement that billions of dollars of research are going into as we goof off on this forum. Technological change will not occur at the rate we are accustomed to. It will happen exponentially faster. Human adaptation will be the limiting factor. Don't send your kids to truck driving school. Nobody cares about freight. They will automate that as soon as it is potentially cheaper than people without a second thought. Ever seen what an auto plant used to look like? Ever seen what one looks like now? Robots are limited by computing power. And we're at the point where that's just feasible in a high decision environment like driving. In a year the cost will be half to perform the same number of processes per second. In ten the cost will be 10%. In twenty it will be .01%. Are you old enough to remember when long distance calls were so expensive that calling home on a trip was almost cost prohibitive? Or cellular roaming charges? Now they are essentially free - included with basic service. In just about a decade.

Single-pilot jet widebody freight ops are going to happen in the next decade. Zero-pilot widebody freight ops in under 15 years. Even if not in the US, somewhere in the world they will allow it, and it will work, and it will save that company money and give them a competitive advantage. How long a track record of zero accident flying in all-cargo ops will they need before they hold that up as a model for passenger carriers to emulate? Five, ten years? How long did it take the iPhone to displace Blackberry as the gold standard in cell phones? One year? Two?

Constant change is the only constant.
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