Originally Posted by
FLYLOW22
Hey D.
All of the airlines are feeling the effects of age 65 retirements for the next 9.5 years (2028) according to retirement data released by major pilot unions not long ago.
As the economy and flying demand fluctuates with he economy (like it always does) that factor will determine pilot hiring.
United and SWA have already throttles back on hiring for various reasons. Delta may be following suit soon.
Basically, the pilots who are aging out will continue to do so. Companies will be deciding on staffing based on the economy and flying demand.
NetJets is hardly immune from the economy... that being said, barring a 2001 or 2008 event sales is VERY brisk, demand for the product strong. The effects from the economy are immediate with airlines. Ownership of a fractional share is a bit more complex but “follows the DOW”. Additionally, Owner contracts are a bit different now since 2008, adding protections against what happened then.
Nothing is a sure bet D but I personally think we’re headed to DOW 30k first before a downturn.
The ceiling of the last administration seems to be the floor of this one.
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UAL hasn't throttled back anything. Recent years haven't seen the crazy numbers like DAL and SWA but yearly hiring numbers have been steady. Summer typically brings a slow down but that changes now, as large classes started last month and will continue through the fall and likely indefinitely...2019 is poised to be a massive hiring year.