We were about 14 pilots per plane a year or so ago, now we are 15 per. I think we will move to about 15.5-16 per plane, especially as the A220 comes online and there’s overlap with 3 fleet types, and especially if we increase A220 utilization over E190 utilization as we bulk up their use in 2022/23 (ie redeyes, which I anticipate eventually). With our remaining six 321 deliveries this year, that puts us at 254 planes. That’s 3810 by year’s end with current staffing, and 4,064 at 16 per.
I don’t think the new work rules, reserve, PTO/VPTO will change requirements a whole lot, frankly. Prem pickup, RSA/VDA will be alive and well and will keep the operation operating. Many people who sell back now will likely fly over vacation months, especially the trough months. I’d be surprised if we ever hit 16.5 pilots per plane. I’m guessing we may hire a little heavier next year, but if you think about it, we are basically maxed right now unless we stop all the 3rd party use of our sims.
With the 190 to bus transitions, newhires, upgrades on 2 fleets, we are already at or near max capacity and have little room to throw in another fleet worth of NH and transitions. This big pay gap between 320 and 190 will trigger more training events than we are used to. Throw in the fact that we need to expand OSC just to get the A220 sims and FPTs in (or go 1 and 1 initially), it won’t happen overnight and our training department, which is already stretched thin, can’t absorb that much more imo, until it grows. Especially since some of them will be going to do A220 initial cadre stuff in the next 12 months or so.
If we ever get a widebody, or possibly just with the LR, that may drive a few more pilots per airframe due to augmented ops, but the intl fleet will be so small it’ll be de minimis.
TL;DR: maybe a couple hundred more than planned over the next couple years. Nothing cosmic, and can’t imagine we can ramp it up very quickly anyway. Hopefully over 5,000 by end of 2023, and 5200-5400 by 2025.
My predictions (based on current order book/no 320 retirements) for EOY numbers:
2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 4300
2021: 4600
2022: 4900
2023: 5200
2024: 5300
2025: 5300