Originally Posted by
Mesabah
When the regionals fall apart, mainlines will still have to fly the small jets if they want to keep their market share, and anti-trust immunity. Unless they can get the government to change small jet policy, but in 30+ years, they haven't made progress.
The only "small jet" policy which applies is the majors don't want to pay mainline wages and benefits to people flying RJ's (< 100 seats). This has been a consistent theme for many years, and I actually believe them when they say it would not be economical... they've consistently put their money where their mouth is on that.
Bear in mind that all or essentially all labor agreements are structured so the junior-most CA gets paid more than the senior-most FO. They don't want to pay a 50 seat CA more than a widebody FO
At some price point, most pax will drive or take a bus to a larger town... there are few places in the lower 48 where a 2-6 hour drive would not get you to a mid-size town with narrow-body service.
If the problem is a pilot shortage, then mainline won't have to worry about competition filling a vacuum (except EAS, which is not "competition").
In the past there has been a theory that regional flying can be operated at a loss if it fills mainline seats... that has been proven to be unreliable formula for success, in general RJ flying needs to operate in the black on it's own.