Originally Posted by
SKYKN6
I really do not believe the over 60 crowd will have as much effect as predicted. Many of us nearing the current age are planning a personal goal of 58 to 61 depending on health and how painful the schedules get with the sod...sorry, optimizer.
I have more than one friend that says the same without any numbers to back them up. I ask each how do you figure?
I figure well over 100 will upgrade again. A few, 50 or so others, will get passover.
This, coupled with 180/year retirements effectively stopping for 1-2 years, will stop hiring for 1-2 years. We all know timing may not be perfect and the bid to get over 60 guys back up front may trail passage of over 65 by many months. this is the wildcard but it looks like we are fat in the 727 and DC-10 and that will stop hiring til '09.
So I figure hiring to start again in '11. Except for FDA's and subject to fleet forecasts getting delayed or more over 60 guys staying around.
And yes, this means 3-5 years for newhires going to FDA's. I can't figure otherwise with current fleet plans and forecast age 65 passage.
It also means very low seniority SO's will spend a similar amount of time there.