Every regional (and LCC, major, etc) is well aware the shortage is coming. Being aware of a problem and being able to respond adequately and fast enough are two whole different things. Regionals are starting to struggle as the treadmill goes faster and faster.

Further, there are a lot of offers going out for people the regionals would not have otherwise made offers to. They had been making offers just to the super prepared, cream of the crop. No more. Consequently, extra work, extra sims, higher washout rates makes it even more difficult for the schoolhouses.

In time they will make adjustments, but as hiring by the majors increases the next few years and that rate is sustained, trying to hire qualified pilots will be harder and harder.

It will get to a point, my crystal ball says, where regionals will consolidate, a good portion of the 50 seaters will get parked in favor of fewer 76 seaters running some routes, and some previous ‘regional’ flying will be brought in to the majors (likely flying the A220s, etc.) Pay for regionals will continue to ratchet up to a point where it reaches two thirds to three fourths of the majors’ pay-scale for the A320/B737.

I have said this is what my crystal ball says the last couple of years. Earlier there were a lot of neysayers; as time has gone on more and more are coming around to my way of thinking. We are seeing evidence of several of these things happening. Stay tuned, it has only just begun.