In addition to mandatory retirements, attrition, and growth there is another factor that has not had much discussion.
In a few short years there will be nearly 1,000 annual mandatory retirements. As stated here, each retirement of a Group IV Captain creates an average of 7 upgrade training events. I recognize not every retirement is of a Group IV CA.
However, ball park, maybe 5,000 training event in a year (a third of the pilots — let that sink in) plus full new hire training of 1,000+ will happen every year for several years running.
Two things. This is going to require a big increase in the Schoolhouse.
The other, which a lot have not thought about, is all those pilots in the Schoolhouse for some period of training takes them off flight status. How many extra pilots need to be hired just to cover for those going through the Schoolhouse? Hundreds of extra hires?
This is not going to be a single year event, one which can be covered by asking for additional flying at premium. It is going to be an ongoing situation for the foreseeable future. It just compounds the problem. AA is not unique in this situation, either. Delta and United will be dealing with this as well.
Food for thought...