Originally Posted by
Mesabah
Even if we burn every drop of oil, there won't be enough to cause a feedback loop that results in runaway greenhouse effect. These fears are way overblown for political reasons. Our evolutionary branch in history happened when CO2 concentration was ~2000ppm, today it's ~400ppm.
Hi Mesabah,
Greetings to Da Range.
Will respond as you might have a few facts wrong (as I probably do as well) you seem to at least think about some things.
Don't know where you got that 2000 ppm CO2 number from, but NASA website sys its in error.CO2 hasn't been above 400ppm for at least 800,000 yrs and Scientific study in 2009 puts it at 10 to 15 million yrs ago.
It has been below 300 ppm since beginning of what we call civilization and has only started to climb since industrial age.
I agree that runaway global warming is unlikely, though some models can show extremes with feedbacks from methane and other sources.They are acknowleged as highly unlikely.
It probably wouldn't take a venus type runaway to destroy civilization as we know it.
First from NASA web site citing a 2014 climate study.
Delta temps from 1861-1880.
less 450ppm less + 2 degrees c
500 ppm = +2
720-1000 ppm greater than or equal +3
Greater than 1000 ppm greater than a 4 Degree Celcius increase.
Without any mitigations to current trends in carbon emissions we are on track to exceed 1000 ppm before year 2100.
Can humans survive that? Of course they can. But not as we live now, nor where we live now. There would be vast changes in where deserts are. Vast changes in where agriculture is sustainable. Vast changes in water supplies.People will be migrating, as humans have for thousands of years. But now wherever they migrate to, someone else is already there. Wonder how well that's going to work out?
There is no way with the loss of croplands and probable collapse of societies that we will not have a massive mortality rate.
Since everything, and I mean everything, is connected, events will occur that we can't predict. Wars are almost a certainty World wide economic collapse?Depends how fast these changes occur. Huge famines? Probably.
I could go on, but you get the idea. It won't take global warming runaway to cause immense chaos and suffering.
NASA has a bunch of pretty smart people. I don't think they live in a fantasy world nor indulge in wishful thinking.These are their projections.
Its a pretty grim future for our descendants should mankind continue with business as usual.