Originally Posted by
WhiteMorpheus
That was the initial "squeeze," but I don't think we've seen the real deal yet. If I can get a job at a major right when I hit 2500hrs that changes the landscape even more. I think this is realistic over the next 2 years, pilots getting their 1000hrs of 121 and moving up and out instead of upgrading and sticking around for another 4 years.
Yes, we'll have a supply of new pilots, but we'll see a lack of quality LCAs and likely some serious safety issue which result (hopefully with no loss of life). If something serious does happen that could force AAG's hand on the whole "B scale" staple thing.
There was an event in SAV a couple days ago with over 500 rotor pilots in attendance looking to make the jump to 121. That’s at 1 single event. There is absolutely no shortage. The RTP program is paying off dividends for the regionals that have invested the money and many of the pipeline programs that were set up in 2016-2017 will start bearing fruit around 2019/2020 further increasing the supply. Word is out that pay has come up. Flight schools have plenty of willing students with the funds, they just don’t have enough instructors right now.
As far as an incident or accident happening, I had a lengthy response to that typed out and decided against posting it. Any of us who have been flying at a regional for a while (3-4+ years) knows the score and we can all see what’s happening industry-wide. I pray nothing happens and I pray even more that it doesn’t happen at PSA. Be vigilant and diligent.