Originally Posted by
ZeroTT
Upgrade times recently have been driven by growth (ie fast)
They’re transitioning to the more typical driven by attrition. That will have to make it slower only because there is no way to go faster. Speed depends on attrition which depends on the overall pilot job market.
FO attrition is also influenced by the expedience of becoming a lineholder and/or upgrading.
If the market at the majors/ULCCs stays strong or increases due to retirements, you will start seeing more people with zero 121 PIC getting hired by them.
If we increase flow to 1% per month, one newhire class each month will basically cover the flow plus monthly training attrition. The other would continue slight growth and account for outside attrition.
If we're really fully staffed you'd think we would see our full complement of 150 planes by next summer. I'm not holding my breath, because without a more efficient use of pilots (less reserve more lines) we
can't staff 150 planes.