Revisiting this and playing devil's advocate...
Let's say the OO TA passes and goes into effect Nov. 1. Would it be silly for any new regional FO wanting ORD as a base to not jump right to SkyWest? Regardless of ERJ or CRJ, it seems OO will have the highest industry total compensation as well as the quickest upgrade and flight time. It's difficult to compare since everyone is now wrapping in bonuses/profit sharing/etc. into the graphs, but doing the math out here is what I got:
Year 1:
SkyWest:
First year pay now at $45/hr:
$45/hr at 76 hrs: $3420 * 12 months = $41,040
According to their charts, PPS will be an average of $3.78 per hour:
$3.78/hr at 76 hrs: $287 * 12 months = $3444
Operational Rewards at $1.16:
$1.16/hr at 76 hrs: $88 * 12 months = $1056
Excluding benefits, per diem, 401K, etc. it looks like at min credit pay, $45,540 is base compensation for first year SkyWest FO given the TA passes.
Republic:
First year pay at $45/hr:
$45/hr at 75 hrs: $3375 * 12 months = $40500
First year Bonus Payout $1,500 + $8,500 after IOE:
$10,000
Excluding benefits, per diem, 401K, etc. at min credit pay, $50,500 is base compensation for first year Republic FO.
End of year 1, the YX FO made roughly $4,960 more than the OO FO.
Year 2:
SkyWest's bonuses/profit sharing stay the same but pay goes up $5/hr. Their chart says a total compensation pay rate of $55.15 giving $50,296 before benefits, per diem, 401K, etc.
Republic pilot will get $7,500 in bonuses and a $5/hr raise giving them $52,500 before benefits, per diem, 401K, etc.
End of year 2, the YX FO made roughly $2,204 more than the OO FO.
Year 3:
This is where it looks like SkyWest FO rates really jumps ahead, however with today's career progression projections (yes, things could change) a pilot at both SkyWest and Republic will be able to upgrade during/at year 3.
If still an FO though, going off SkyWest's charts, a FO will make $57,766 based off of total compensation rates of $63.34 at 76 hr guarantee.
A Republic FO, now out of signing bonuses, will only make $45,900 based off of $51/hr at 75 hr guarantee.
End of year 3, the OO FO made roughly $11,866 more than the YX FO.
In total, at SkyWest 3 years of compensation for a 2018 hire FO is $153,406.
At Republic, 3 years of compensation is $148,900, or $4,506 less than a comparable pilot at SkyWest.
Please correct me if my math is incorrect, but it does look that the new SkyWest TA, given that it passes, will easily be the highest paid with an ORD base IF the pilot stays as an FO through 3 years at each carrier.
Now looking at Captain upgrade:
Year 3:
CRJ200 CA at SkyWest will make Total Compensation rate in the year 2020 of $91.12/hr, at 76 hr/month, totaling $83,101.
ERJ CA at Republic will make $95.06/hr at 75 hr/month, totaling $85,554 or $2,453 more than the newly upgraded SkyWest captain.
Following a common upgrade at year 3, all these numbers added up, the Republic pilot will make less than the SkyWest pilot. Obviously the amount of money over the course of 3 years is small enough that it can be changed easily given the amount of flying, credit, etc. each pilot is able to get at either airline. It can also change depending on how much more/less SkyWest pays out in their profit sharing programs.
Hopefully this math checks out and can help anyone trying to decide between OO and YX. From a total compensation stand point, it looks to be a wash through year 3 given that both pilots upgrade in the year 3 mark. If not, then the SkyWest FO will begin to make a good amount more than the Republic FO. The thing that could change all this are two things in the SkyWest TA: The ability for up to $40,000 in additional signing bonuses and the ability to raise FO pay at anytime by $5/hr. If either of those happen, or even a fraction of the $40,000 is given as a recruitment bonus, then SkyWest will clearly have the highest overall compensation of ORD based carriers (for the time being).