Upgrade will continue to run between 9-10 years for the foreseeable future. The other X Factor to upgrade predicitions are the economy and future M&A events. The former seems fairly stable for the foreseeable future, the latter seems much more likely in the next 2-3 years. Once that happens, you’re at the mercy of how the SLI is determined between the two merging carriers. IOW, upgrade predictions are just that, predictions, and a constantly moving target.