Originally Posted by
Salukidawg
Upgrade will continue to run between 9-10 years for the foreseeable future. The other X Factor to upgrade predicitions are the economy and future M&A events. The former seems fairly stable for the foreseeable future, the latter seems much more likely in the next 2-3 years. Once that happens, you’re at the mercy of how the SLI is determined between the two merging carriers. IOW, upgrade predictions are just that, predictions, and a constantly moving target.
If we do merge with anyone, it will be a fringe player 737 operator like Sun Country. They have pretty much put up a for sale sign by flying a lot of the same scheduled routes we do in the same equipment.
That being said, the next merger will come after the next economic downturn when companies are on the ropes. Right now, airline stocks are still doing very well despite the price of fuel. Southwest has the size and free cash advantage to wait out the market and buy cheap.
I am a big believer in worrying about the things I can control. A merger event is definitely not one of them. I also just don’t see it happening during a period of time when all airlines are still rolling in profits.