Andy

You're correct; I didn't bother rechecking the number. It's 140, not 160. Norwegian will have a fleet size of 164 aircraft at year end 2018 before any sales. And are scheduled to take delivery of 19 aircraft in 2019.

The reason why Norwegian has to sell assets is due to the fact that they are dangerously close to triggering bond covenants, which require them to have certain liquidity levels. This is not a secret. It's well known by every airline exec out there. For that reason, Norwegian is/will be getting lowball offers for their aircraft.

If one compares the monthly RASK from Q3 (Jul Aug Sep) to their Q2 CASK, it's pretty obvious that Q3 was barely above breakeven before one time credits/charges. And Q3 is traditionally Norwegian's best quarter. Q4 and Q1 have always had losses, so unless Norwegian recapitalizes its balance sheet again (they did this with secondary stock offerings this last spring), they're dead. Selling most of their fleet will raise some capital along with deferring deliveries.

My personal guess is that, absent some capital raise, Norwegian will close its doors in January due to Q4's cash burn which will trigger bond covenants. And WOW Air will likely follow them into insolvency a few months later. The reason why they're both dead is that it's impossible to have a TATL ULCC with year round service. The flipflop and backpack crowd travels TATL in a four month or so window, making the rest of the year unprofitable. Heck, Norwegian's September Air Traffic numbers indicate that they lost money in that month.