Originally Posted by Scoop

Ted,


What is different was sudden sustained record hiring after a decade of minimal hiring. The 2016 MOAB was an anomaly in which many were caught off guard.


As I said the MOAB was probably the zenith of the quick upgrade. Many who were the plug back with the 2016 MOAB were either displaced or still at the very bottom. The tough part is many will not move up for years as more senior FOs bid in above them.



So to answer your question of "what is different" I will say that there are some differences, the biggest being an abrupt switch to sustained record hiring after a decade of minimal hiring which along with 1 year conversions caught guys flat footed. Many thought they would upgrade on follow up bids which never materialized.


Slowly but surely, just as water seeks its level, the seniority is working its way back to a more normal upgrade times. With continued robust hiring we should see "rapid" upgrades continue but "rapid" will return to a more conventional time such as 3-5 years. Plenty of guys have been burned by waiting for the next bid which never came. Combine that with a bunch of senior FOs (especially pre-2001 hires) with limited time left and we should see upgrade times return to a more historic norm. I doubt we will see many more sub 1 year Captains.



Hell, just look at the C series (220) left seat to see the trend already playing out.


Scoop