Eh. Call me a pessimist. We are almost 10,000 pilots. We are retiring less than 200 per year. 1000 pilots are waiting to upgrade (presumably until they can hold a line but who knows) That means for a new person to upgrade they either need about 4000 people to retire, or the seniority list to almost double.

We aren’t going to continue hiring 600-900 pilots per year indefinitely. Eventually it’ll drop when they reach the staffing they’re looking for.

I think it will be 10 years or longer for the foreseeable future.


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