I thought I would throw my thoughts out there. They really don’t mean anything just my perspective. I was hired June 2008 and could have held CA in OAK right at the 10 year mark. I believe 4 guys maybe 5 took the upgrade and the rest of my class myself included are bypassing. Here are a few reasons why.

Being hired in 2008 was painful the first 5 years. I had around 170 pilots below me the first two years. There was no movement at all. Depending on domicile some spent between 2 and 3 years on reserve. My point is that it is finally nice to have some seniority. Most do not want to give that up to commute to reserve in OAK. Many are waiting to be able to hold a line. I’m on 11th year pay and I think 12th year FO in 2020 when converted to hourly is around $193 hour. So just flying your Tues through Thurs line is a pretty good gig. And in MDW I can usually get a line with 2 or 3 trips commutable on both ends. Open time means nothing to me. I am so glad we are not where we were a couple years ago with constant extensions and JA’s.

I’m still only around 25% in MDW and 15% in DEN after 10 years. Some of those senior FO’s in MDW could hold pretty descent lines as CA’s but are just in no hurry. Some have businesses on the side (I have a farm) and the flexibility seniority provides is hard to give up.

I do think LAX will be very junior in both seats. I don’t see it being a commuter friendly base with hotel prices and I thought the union put something out saying only 150 pilots lived in the “area”.

Lance Captain is also something to figure in. Since you can fly unlimited CA trips for one year while bidding as an FO that can make it hard to figure. The funny thing there is that you can typically hold CA way before you can hold lance. In MDW junior lance was around #83000 and junior CA is around #89500.

I think it boils down to this. There will be a big difference between holding bottom CA on reserve or CA as a line holder especially in different bases. If you are willing to commute to reserve anywhere the number will keep coming down. But many will continue to pile in on top as there seniority gets better on the CA list. My plan is to wait until spring 2020 unless I could hold a line in DEN or MDW this coming year with the 600 upgrades. The other catch is I really don’t want to go to training May through October because of the increased farm work. Many don’t want to upgrade in the summer. That is why CA went so junior this summer and this time of year the awards are more senior.

Anyway sorry for the long winded babbling I just had some time and thought I would pass along my thoughts. In the end there is just no way to accurately predict the numbers. Way to many factors. Just enjoy all the hiring and the climb up the list.