Seriously? I think you've got it nailed. Delta is buying a bunch of A220s but they seem to be looking at putting them on the East Coast routes:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/first-delta-a220-routes/
That actually would constitute somewhat of a threat to Endeavor, but will scarcely compete with Compass. What will happen to the West coast flying? Well, eventually I know the Delta pilots would like to take back scope altogether. What will happen to Compass? Who knows.
EVERY SINGLE CONTRACT HAS A TERMINATION DATE. I suppose it's entirely possible that Delta will tell Endeavor to move out West, but it would probably be cheaper to use the existing infrastructure we already have - especially if they were ultimately planning on replacing it with A220s or E-2s anyway. Perhaps Delta will extend the contract, perhaps they won't. It is highly unlikely - even if they decide not to renew - they will simply terminate it on its last day. More probably they would draw it down three or six aircraft a month over a year or six months.
As soon as they made their intentions to terminate clear, I imagine Compass management would be doing their utmost to find additional flying, because the AA flying contract goes to 2022 I believe, and the last thing that management would want would be the sort of chaos that would ensue with senior people on the Delta side bumping junior people on the AA side. Furloughs inevitably result in the average salary being paid going higher as the more junior people are eliminated, and nobody in management wants the overhead increased like that. So yeah, if Delta says it's not going to renew they will be looking hard for new business. And that's the same for Republic, Skywest, Mesa, ...you name it.
But yeah, if it happened and you had to go somewhere else with a brand new Embraer 170/190 type rating and 500 hrs of SIC time it isn't like you wouldn't be welcomed. In the meantime at least you would have been acquiring those hours where you want to be.
Now having said that, I understand why Slowhawk feels the way he does, I have friends at Horizon that feel the same way. They got hired, went to reserve, and now are going to be staying there for a LONG time, just like Slowhawk did at Compass because of the hiring freeze. Worse yet, he got min pay (at a time when min pay was less) and didn't acquire hours at a rate that would have better helped along his career progression. The guys hired since September of last year got a bonus he didn't get, more pay than he got, and have pretty much been on the fast track at getting hours.
But everyone's experience is going to be different. The whole regional industry is at the whim of things that none of us can control. That's just a fact. No contract lasts forever and even being a wholly owned doesn't protect you - Compass WAS a wholly owned until it got sold by Delta. There are no sure things in the regionals.
You gotta decide what's right for you. But that's pretty much the same wherever you go. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes your airline goes into bankruptcy and you lose the pension you thought you already had - like the Delta mainline guys. Remember Braniff? Pan American? TWA? Even once you hit the bigtime the bigtime operator you have your seniority with can go Tango Uniform and you are looking for a job.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States
The only absolutely safe course of action is to not play at all. But then, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
